Thursday, December 22, 2016

Cubs, Trump, and the big payoff

2016 sees the Cubs win the World Series and Trump elected. The two do not seem to have much in common but both represent brand economics. The Cubs finally make it to the big event just at a time when almost all sports salaries are rewarding water down talent and feeding a wider spread between their fan base and player incomes. Cable sports has helped generate huge revenues to push player contracts to a level where there is no way an average fan can possible relate. The election too also represents brand economics where high wealth performers soon to be in power seemingly will be basing their economic vision on ensuring greater gains for an elite class well above what might be called their own fan base, a group seemingly willing to vote against their own interests. Both the economy and sports may have entered an era where the product is just not going to get any better.
The the new stewards of the nation believe the markets will decide what is good or bad, unencumbered by regulations and fueled with promises of lower taxes. But be careful what you wish for. The economy has had a huge run and notions of extending equity gains on lower corporate taxes is a stretch. The rally since the election displays a confidence which appears to be based on all the economic benefits of looting. The hard parts lie just ahead and waiting for what may be an inevitable government shutdown in March will be a challenge for the confidence boys. Markets don't play fair and certainly rarely accept a quid quo pro reasoning that things will be ok because billionaires are in charge. What market participants may be asking at some point is,  " If you are so rich, how come you're not smart?"

Monday, December 19, 2016

Stocks In Beginning 2017 Have Rich Premiums

Looking for opportunities in the Q8 looks a bit daunting relative to where these stocks were when Obama took office in January 2009.  CoverRisk calculates the value of a stock, futures, whatever based solely on price and the performance of long/short models.  Discounts in 2009 reflected near panic liquidations leading into the March 2009 lows.  Today, premiums reflect a complete reversal from the 2009 discounts as large premiums have developed to accommodate the reach for price in thin declining volume markets.