What's The Point ? World Ending

What will happen to us?

Forecasters tackle the extremely deep future

The Royal Institution of Great Britain has stood on the same site since 1799, and on most days it would seem one of the older and fustier buildings in central London. But on April 6, time did a funny thing: The institution’s 212 years of existence suddenly contracted, and went from seeming unimaginably long to unimaginably short.

From (Timothy Goodman for the Boston Globe)

A Different View

Credit will save stock bulls in next ‘flash crash’

Commentary: Strong credit market is good for equities

By Jon Markman, MarketWatch

SEATTLE (MarketWatch) — An unintended, unexpected, unprecedented crisis of liquidity among high-frequency traders on May 6, 2010 undercut the deepest roots of stock investors' confidence in the fair operation of markets — a condition that persists to this day.

Yet markets have barreled forward. High-beta stocks are up 35% since the “flash crash” despite the mistrust, while the old boys of the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -1.10% have gained 18%. Why?

SUMMER DEADLINE

Debt Ceiling Has Some Give, Until Roof Falls In

By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM

Published: May 4, 2011 (NYTIMES)

WASHINGTON — The federal government will not run short of money to pay its bills on May 16, when the federal debt reaches the legal maximum of $14.3 trillion.

Goldman Working On Shaping The Edge

Goldman Lobbying Hard to Weaken Volcker Rule

NYTIMES ARTICLE FROM REUTERS

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc has just a few more months to put its stamp on the Volcker rule, and it is not wasting any time.

The rule, designed to limit banks from speculating with their own money, will cost Goldman at least $3.7 billion in annual revenue, by one estimate. And billions more could be at stake if regulations now being drawn up are extra-tough.

Rudy Komin

It is with great sadness that I announce the passing of Rudy Komin. For his family and many friends, the loss seems almost without possibility given the energy and great determination with which he lived each day. I have never known a better man.

When a group of us set out to develop an alternative trading and analytics operation, Rudy was one of the last to join. Yet he soon became the clear leader in driving and championing a positive attitude and commitment to success. Even when we floundered at times, his relentless optimism played a huge part in finally building our adaptive application. To Rudy, it was always about the people and the journey of building something that was greater than the money. It was really about investing in the possibility to change lives by its eventual success. Try to find that in today's world.

The rewards in life for being noble unfortunately are replaced far too easily by lesser goals. Rudy Komin challenged all of us to commit to family, to friends, and to those visions which are not sure things, but contain great possibilities.

Will Hartnett

Limited Choices and the Bernanke Box

QRiskValue builds trading and analytical models which have been tremendous out performers since 2007. Data provided by several methodologies show similar extreme price patterns as those exhibited in the late summer of 2007. Equities and there subordinates the indexes have seized on the game play of what QRiskValue calls the efficiency of limited choices. These choices are rarely the right choices but they are the flavor which flows evenly and for a while, profitably. Much like the mortgage trades of the recent past and the technology bubble trades of a decade ago, markets prefer few choices to expedite transactional efficiency and the accompanying rationalizations of value attached to them. The Bernanke Box started as a strategy evolving from the Fed's limited choices to stimulate as well as its desire to trap or strangle less risky choices of managers. This Box has now delivered a franchise methodology based on asset relief by forcing managers to deliver returns from equity asset risk as an alternative to virtual zero risk money funds.

Vegas does not care what color shirt you are wearing or how fat you are, they want you to play the money. Bernanke does not care what assets costs or how they are dressed, he just cares about the up. For those wishing to dress themselves, it may be best to avoid these markets.

Comparing Budgets

Graph of the Day: Ryan vs. Obama vs. the Commissions

Good To Be On Top

Of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%

Americans have been watching protests against oppressive regimes that concentrate massive wealth in the hands of an elite few. Yet in our own democracy, 1 percent of the people take nearly a quarter of the nation’s income—an inequality even the wealthy will come to regret. (Vanity Fair Article by Joseph E Stiglitz

Real Estate

Showdown in the Sunshine State

Two of Wall Street's savviest value investors, Bruce Berkowitz and David Einhorn, pride themselves on their rigorous analysis. Now they're locked in a scorched-earth dispute over the value of some Florida real estate. How could they look at the same facts and reach such wildly different conclusions, and what does that say about the “value” of value investing?

From Atlantic Monthly by Megan Mcardle

Sell Signal Still Flying

QRiskValue monitors the Bull/Bear Sensor each year by comparing its various underlying analytics for each market. Each year is broken down into long days and short days and then tallied. This is the breakdown over the last three years including 2011 for the SP500.

Year/ Long Days/ Short Days/ Points

2008/ 13/ 238/ 306

2009 /250/ 0/ 160

2010/ 196/ 54/ 320

2011/ 0/ 61/ -50