Trend confirming models, (confirming the UP), rolled over in March and April. Greece is the possible event action which becomes the weak link revealing some of the structural price soft spots created by central banks interventions. Chasing greater returns works until the price action is negative enough to establish cash, (zero return), as a prohibitive favorite.
Monday, June 29, 2015
If Zero Becomes Prohibitive Favorite
Trend confirming models, (confirming the UP), rolled over in March and April. Greece is the possible event action which becomes the weak link revealing some of the structural price soft spots created by central banks interventions. Chasing greater returns works until the price action is negative enough to establish cash, (zero return), as a prohibitive favorite.
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
Central Banks Buy Indexes To Support World Markets
Sovereign buy programs supporting market today as they apply the short squeeze to all those to challenge central bank authority. Index futures are the easiest target as central banks support the indexes and to soften the impact for the other leg of the trade which is to be the raising of U.S. interest rates. It is all positive on prices as long as the buying continues because the rest of usual buyside pools are empty.
Monday, June 15, 2015
Greece Markets
Markets waiting for Greece to be 'enabled' again, after all it is no different from the Fed bailing out an entire generation at the top under the guise it is best for everyone. Bernanke and Yellen some how see their efforts as courageous acts saving the economy but they are really nothing more than supports for a broken system which not surprisingly provides excessive relief to the privileged. Risk has been identified as any negative deviation from a positive equity curve. Such power given central bankers who have achieved great career success by simply showing up everyday without ever taking any risks. Risk voyeurs.
The landscape is rapidly changing for all human inhabitants. Totally connected all the time is bringing forth specialized skills and minimized opportunities. Markets have long gone from open outcry to electronic trading, except for some options markets which may confirm to many that those markets are useless. Traders now circle the action online at various speeds but there are only two speeds really; hyper speed and everything else. Trading shops 'Quanting Up' to build competitive strategy teams which end up resembling bad sports clubs marked by occasional wins but primarily mediocre performances.
CNBC is proof, because who else would watch it, that there are enough online trading participants using badly canned trading and analytics platforms who enjoy listening to folks bark like a carnies using information bias which have to be used only as a daily fade.
The landscape is rapidly changing for all human inhabitants. Totally connected all the time is bringing forth specialized skills and minimized opportunities. Markets have long gone from open outcry to electronic trading, except for some options markets which may confirm to many that those markets are useless. Traders now circle the action online at various speeds but there are only two speeds really; hyper speed and everything else. Trading shops 'Quanting Up' to build competitive strategy teams which end up resembling bad sports clubs marked by occasional wins but primarily mediocre performances.
CNBC is proof, because who else would watch it, that there are enough online trading participants using badly canned trading and analytics platforms who enjoy listening to folks bark like a carnies using information bias which have to be used only as a daily fade.
Thursday, June 11, 2015
More Than A Correction
Markets trying to fight off recent sell-off. This has been the first time this year where stock indexes are selling off with trend indicators turning to a negative bias hinting at more than a correction but the beginning of a major move downward. AAPL one of the first to indicate negative trend warning.
Last Friday's CoverRisk.com data.
AAPL Trend Indicator/ Down
Last Friday's CoverRisk.com data.
AAPL Trend Indicator/ Down
Call Veracity YTD
23
Call Veracity Run 2008 – Present
113
Event Price
57
Weekly Close
128.65
AAPL YTD
18
Run Performance 2008 – Present
100
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Range Momentum
Stocks and indexes so far this afternoon reversing the downside action of yesterday. Much of the trade has been like this with momentum nerds continuing to dominate daytime action. Greek troubles will play with prices but it is hard to get the bulls into a corner.
Tech stocks such as AAPL, cash giant machines, with overpriced stocks to accommodate all who wish to enter, have event price spreads nearing one and half times value. There is not enough money in the system to pay off all the longs and some will have to eat at cheaper prices. If you paid, or better, lent AAPL 110 at the beginning of the year, you our now looking at 19.5% return and a 370% return since Jan of 2008. Cheerleaders waving the AAPL flag forecast much higher prices but always have that upward stare.
Economic growth remains dull but Fed is determined to raise rates unless they can find another excuse to keep assets juiced.
Tech stocks such as AAPL, cash giant machines, with overpriced stocks to accommodate all who wish to enter, have event price spreads nearing one and half times value. There is not enough money in the system to pay off all the longs and some will have to eat at cheaper prices. If you paid, or better, lent AAPL 110 at the beginning of the year, you our now looking at 19.5% return and a 370% return since Jan of 2008. Cheerleaders waving the AAPL flag forecast much higher prices but always have that upward stare.
Economic growth remains dull but Fed is determined to raise rates unless they can find another excuse to keep assets juiced.
Tuesday, May 19, 2015
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
Friday, April 3, 2015
Market Test Ahead
Markets have been a bit more volatile in the last couple weeks. Today's job numbers was taken badly and may indicate some Monday downside. The trend is still favoring rewarding the bulls with a better chance than even the market will see higher prices. However, there is a test on the downside yet to come with the SP500 spot testing 2000. A broad failure there would be the end of the secular bull trend of the last six years. An offense strategy right now would be to dump stock positions in the coming days and wait till there is some recovery in interest rates since the current sell off in the bond market is an indication there could be a large hole below the waterline. Interest rates should be going up to meet the Fed tightening and they are doing just the opposite. Gradually higher rates would ultimately bring new stock market highs.
Sunday, March 1, 2015
Improving Your Chances of Never Have A Losing Year
If you are a manager and your strategy has ever had a losing year, why would anyone ever give you any money? If you are a private investor and your general overall retirement fund of which you have power over has ever lost money, you need to find someone else to manage your affairs. If you are an active trader, professional, then you probably should never have a losing month.
If you are an strategist manager, rule number one is never have a losing year. Sounds tough because even the great brand name investors have had not only down years but really bad down years. Remember however, guys like Buffett, while value investing for the long term, they are really brand name savers. If you are willing to hold a stock over a long period of time, up year and down year, then you don't understand risk and do not care if you an alternative upside opportunity even exists. You are thus committed to "hoping" as the vast majority of stock holders are and inevitability reliant on massive intervention from central banks to make you good because the reality in today's world is that buy and hold investing is a fallacy. From AAPL on down, ultimately you are going to have that really bad year.
It has taken zero interest rates for seven years to support your stock portfolio. Over the same time there has been almost no real growth in the economy, fewer employed, and an absolute fear of it all falling apart in we cannot revive our once dreaded enemy, inflation. What's worst, the investing industry has now created the ETF trap where seas of predominately passive investment vehicles have been created to primarily capture the sales transaction for their hosts while offering little in the way of investment opportunity or protection.
What's one to do? Hold stocks for a short time horizon regardless of the tax implication. If you are worried about the taxes and not about losing years then you will never get it anyway.
Find great index managers providing absolute return strategies without ever having a losing year.
Find managers that have strong compound returns and can tell you what $20,000 would have done after a year or five years, and not based on some VAMI metric.
More to come.
If you are an strategist manager, rule number one is never have a losing year. Sounds tough because even the great brand name investors have had not only down years but really bad down years. Remember however, guys like Buffett, while value investing for the long term, they are really brand name savers. If you are willing to hold a stock over a long period of time, up year and down year, then you don't understand risk and do not care if you an alternative upside opportunity even exists. You are thus committed to "hoping" as the vast majority of stock holders are and inevitability reliant on massive intervention from central banks to make you good because the reality in today's world is that buy and hold investing is a fallacy. From AAPL on down, ultimately you are going to have that really bad year.
It has taken zero interest rates for seven years to support your stock portfolio. Over the same time there has been almost no real growth in the economy, fewer employed, and an absolute fear of it all falling apart in we cannot revive our once dreaded enemy, inflation. What's worst, the investing industry has now created the ETF trap where seas of predominately passive investment vehicles have been created to primarily capture the sales transaction for their hosts while offering little in the way of investment opportunity or protection.
What's one to do? Hold stocks for a short time horizon regardless of the tax implication. If you are worried about the taxes and not about losing years then you will never get it anyway.
Find great index managers providing absolute return strategies without ever having a losing year.
Find managers that have strong compound returns and can tell you what $20,000 would have done after a year or five years, and not based on some VAMI metric.
More to come.
Friday, February 27, 2015
Least Risk Stocks of the Q8
February had a volatile trader's beginning but has ended as quiet as any action has been over the last seven years. Valuations for stocks are stretched and the bulls just keep on explaining the upside as a series of fundamental equations. The Fed is about to start raising rates and only an equities break of 15% or more in Q2 will stop it. Top dogs such as AAPL remain over valued but continue to see little in the way of pressure as the hedge fund industry wants to accumulate on each pull back. That of coarse could be bad news for AAPL as the hedge community struggles to break out of an almost perpetual under performance cycle against nearly every benchmark.
In CoverRisk's Q8, MSFT has the worst overall price risk rating with PFE the highest in the least risk category. Last years least risk stalwart, GS, has entered the bad zone with BAC and F finishing the dark side. AAPL, GOOG, and IBM are in the least risk zone with PFE as of today's action.
In CoverRisk's Q8, MSFT has the worst overall price risk rating with PFE the highest in the least risk category. Last years least risk stalwart, GS, has entered the bad zone with BAC and F finishing the dark side. AAPL, GOOG, and IBM are in the least risk zone with PFE as of today's action.
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