Soybeans have always been a wonderful trap. The bulls usually have to rely on the same old weather related developments, hot and dry. Now you can have dry without the hot, but never hot without the dry. Even still, farmers always get those crops in and they always get them out. Whatever the American farmer cannot grow due to crop problems, the South American farmer can. Historically, this ultimately has led to carryover problems. Too many beans. This makes life for the bulls tough.
Looking at the soybean market over the last two sessions, it seems to be another broken dream for the bulls. Last Friday the beans were in launch sequence. The great liquidity giant in hedge fund form was long. However, the limited skills of the weathermen appeared to be illuminated by a slight change in forecast when the very hot was replaced by the very wet. Ouch. Of course commercial grain companies were thus glad to help the longs on the opening Monday by offering as much for sale as they could eat. Always helping.
The bull has until about August 10th to kill the crop. If it has not been accomplished by then the dream of beans in the teens will have to wait.
