Friday, August 17, 2007

Fed Hopes

Markets closed well today obviously, with the usual accommodation from the Fed. The lessons learned about various risk profiles may have a ripple effect on future loaded positions, at least that's what the Fed is hoping. The market problems were created by the collective geniuses putting on the same trades backed by faulty spread/risk models. Adaptive models are exceptionally hard to come by as evident by the carnage heaped upon the hedge fund industry. The claims of risk neutral and virtual zero risk positions supporting the hedge fund structure are all crap. If you can still go broke in one day, it's the same old structure.
The markets will try to continue building a base next week, and if successful, may have some actual upside surprises. However, if next week they rally and roll over again, they we will be stuck in the lower to sideways zone.