Betting On Direction

The impact of the housing on all markets is the topic of much discussion. The glacial movement of an illiquid market is hard to scope. It is fair to say that the all markets are in a large part tied to housing and the debt equity cash driver created over the last ten years. Since serious house value declines are being reported through out the US, the threat to the economy is probably being under played. Fresh from their victory of brow beating the little Fed chairman, wall street is pointing to the upside of Fed stimulation and the resulting rallying stock markets as proof. Commodity markets are still hot with large fund participation willing to bet that lower rates will provide free money. Tech stocks, the true leader of any real bull market, are poised to break out to the upside. So then which is it? Starting of the good times as in 1996, or gonna get real bad like 2000? The markets will tell us in October. Should the tech stocks fail in the current configuration and or commodities reverse, bet on down.