Saturday, June 7, 2008

Over Play

Bears took hold in an orderly break pressured heavily by expiration and sank the indexes to levels well within the range bound area traversed since January. There was much hand wringing about oil as it continued a two day rally of approx. 16 dollars per barrel, but it only closed 2.5% above the all time high.

Just as the bears felt uneasy about last Friday's closing rally, this Friday's bulls
are anxious. Both sides have been pressing for big moves and to a large extent they have achieved wide ranges, yet over the same ground. Whether it is the particular inability to make money as a bear without a mindless crash or the absence of a needed moronic upward trend for the bull, one is not quite sure. What we end up with is the over playing and over trading of ranges along with inaccurate hyperbole by business network analysts.

Here is the data for the FTM (for the move) numbers on the DJI average, SP500 and NQ100 spot futures.

DJI -14% off all time high + 5% off FTM low . Last time closed here 3/28

SP500 -14.3% off all time high +8.5 off FTM low. Last time closed here 4/10

NQ100 -59% off all time high/ -11.7% off of FTM high +19% off FTM low. Last time closed here 5/2