Friday, February 20, 2009

Giant Bear Miscalculation

Indexes following the DJIA around on the downside as of mid session with every chart patternist drawing their line in the sand. Dow Theory folks, on the inter-connected weakness of the DJIA Transports and the DJIA itself, are declaring a new primary bear market. They should have read BaseOp2 post of October 07 to get short. Anyway, charts are photographs, not maps. The markets are at the end of process of complete capitulation as the dire forecasts make any arguments about any new comparative investment opportunitie as valuable as informational fliers being handed out on a street corner. The calls to raise cash by the sale of virtually all asset classes is starting to meet the spread leg of the G's backstops. These trades are in the process of finding homes in the inventory of wired investors laying the foundation for great wealth. While there is no question these markets will result in a landscape which will be altered for many years, never before have there been so many openings to ride guarantees against risk. A look at the corporate bond market is clear evidence the play has begun.

The remnants of things the general public had grown to love in order to keep pace with any type of wealth scenario will be somewhat altered. Unfortunately, real estate will not be the launching pad for the broader speculative elements of the economy. Speculative trading of all kind will not provide the added lift to stocks and commodities and will be weaker in form and numbers except for those with keen insight. Just like the bulls October of 2007, the bears are showing the ability to make a giant directional miscalculation.