Monday, May 18, 2009

Fixing Up

Putting the stock indexes on the upside track is a combination of public trust and a mountain of interventionist theories speculating what underlying share values may be able to support. The former remains unwilling to risk anything more than some of what is left, and the latter, financial engineers, are trying to determine how and what the post crash world order will trade. Arguments about the type of recovery, V, L, or W, all are based on the notion the markets have already bottomed. There are few who think substantial new lows are ahead. Given the headlines and analysis of the crash, the investigations and interventions, a smoke clearing vista of rebuilding has become wisdom.

These markets still remain fragile and the prices constructed so far off the lows show no particular strength. Extremely cheap price areas are usually rejected by rapid recovery rallies and the stop watch on this rally is getting close to losing in the qualifying time. While a middle of the pack recovery would suit everyone, a race down is still a possibility.