Sunday, December 6, 2009

Geithner / Dollar / Housing

Geithner apparently is upset at the 'bonus unleashed' attitude of Wall Street executives who not so long ago prayed for cash and forgiveness. Of course the Treasury Secretary 'doth protest too much' since he basically gave the keys to Goldman and JPMorgan when he made them good at 100 cents on the dollar in many things including AIG's obligations. Geithner talks tough but winks a lot.

The dollar remains the focus of much attention even though it is a who cares trade. But given the bomb it laid in 2009, don't be short the dollar in 2010. That was easy.

Housing gains on data are a laugh since the macro simply is that the banks are not going to fund equity in homes for the foreseeable future. Real equity is what you can get to and most will not be able to get to anything there. Housing will find bottom pickers in 2010 and will wander through over supply for several years.

Each year is a stock pickers year despite the general overall lifting associated with up trends. Cult stocks such as AAPL and GOOG are overbought but they always run hot until the idiot bell rings and they all get out dripping positions until they are looking at real damage. Better to own IBM, MSFT, and yes even GS.