Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Mystery China Trade

Market's decline today partly blamed on China credit restrictions, but regardless, as mentioned here in September, the whole China story is going to end badly. The Google internet dilemma is hardly a surprise. Totalitarian forces will ultimately harm the entire China fantasy along with trades pushed by commodity and stock traders long on China but short on original thought. The China demand theory evolves from the same level of excitement which delivered trades based on bundles of weak scrutinized debt which the rating agencies stamped AAA. The design flaw in the China trade is not because there are not enough Chinese to lift demand, but because the underlying economic conditions and data are a mystery and lack transparency. Mysteries always lead to bad trades, always.