Thursday, January 27, 2011

Value Plays

Dealing with complex organizational financial structures which are so intertwined in the economic operational functions of our daily lives is a major undertaking. So when the Fed and Treasury battled the early stages of economic crisis it was with a sense of intensity as one would fight a large fire. As things cooled however, the plan for tackling the lethargy left over from the economic backslide left no clear strategy as to how to move forward. More importantly, the Fed needed results. Whether or not those results were substantive did not matter as long as they were perceived as such. Bernanke was committed to the psychology of economics rather than the substantive repairs and major market players perceived this as early as the spring of 2008. The Fed had no choice but to pump in an ever growing evolution of gadgetry ways to under pin asset values. Banks and Investment firms received money for free and a guarantee no harm would reach them outside of whatever regulatory reforms were to come in the future. Of course, there have been few regulatory reforms and the rules under various legislative measures are still be watered down as of today.

The Fed now perceives itself fostering real economic growth which determines values by real demand encouraged by its own interventional demand determined by the values themselves. However, when you decide to promote notions of value, remember that game can be played to your detriment. The world we live in is one where corporate engines are able to adapt to stimulus and cost cutting but are not able nor willing to create jobs in the United States. Without significant job growth, value plays just play out and become a seller's market.