Monday, June 6, 2011

Loss Aversion

Creating jobs and the psychological positives attached to growing employment numbers are apparently what markets are going to need in the months ahead. I can't get over the feeling however that this is about the old loss aversion theory; that people prefer avoiding losses to acquiring gains. I see it strategy choices all the time. Traders would rather choose a pattern of trading where the risk averse strategy limits there ability to participate in opportunities for gains. Bears choose the least up and Bulls pick the least down even when probabilities are equal. In the case of this market, participants do not want to be a party to the most anticipated Great Depression II on record. Ugly is going to get every opportunity to prove itself and whether it becomes self fulfilling or a sucker play, we will know soon.