Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Fastdown Or Grind Up

Clean sharp lights shining on an undisturbed baseball diamond is one of the most calming images to behold.   There is no moment in trading ever so calming with the exception of a quiet trading floor hours after the close. Today's markets have no refuge, they just grind endlessly over hills and down valleys.  They are supported by serious explanations of value and derided by suspicious inquisitors.

Bulls have had no lifting problems in 2012, while the bears have repeatedly been trapped by pull backs believed to be so globally dire but only to become rally points.  Certainly the value of the great bailout promise from the EU has risen to new highs.  Nothing has been accomplished but the rewording of tired declarations.

This is a powerful time period for all markets as I so remember back in 1982 with the bottom of commodity markets and the month earlier bottom is equities.  All had be falling for a time and the slow upward march began in the second week of October.  But there is no indication to the direction here under these extraordinary economic times of deliberate intervention and almost constant upside bias.

If this is a top, it will fall rapidly. If it is a pullback, the grind higher will be at the bear's throat before he can cover cleanly.