Sunday, November 11, 2012

Downside Hope vs Upside Cash

Markets are rarely obvious.  Apparently either are elections.  Though one might postulate the Wall Street brains may have been convinced Romney would win and sold off the market the days following the election, but that is too obvious.  The probable cause is more of a battle between those who truly believe we have higher prices on hope, and those who are sure the cost of carry is going continue to pay.   After all, in the search for returns,  its not whether one can find value, but where one can play the spread between the cost of money and the speculation on companies for modest returns over zero borrowing costs. 

But there is the fiscal cliff.  Everyone is talking about it so you know its over hyped and part of a self fulfilling temporary flagellation with an eventual hindsight view deserving an even greater upside narrative.    The markets are almost always wrong about the future but always right about the past.