Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Overbought/ AAPL or GOOG?



It would seem GOOG would be the obvious choice here given it is up 15% YTD and AAPL is down 15% YTD.  But data from QRiskValue would still say it is AAPL on a percentage basis of current value.

QRiskValue's metric supposes there is a premium one would be willing to receive to give up on the upside prospects for a stock.  Conversely one would have to paid a monetary incentive to purchase a stock in order to protect oneself on the downside. 

As for AAPL and GOOG, while the dollar amount would be higher for GOOG to give up your upside; ($260), the percentage is roughly about 36% of current value.  On the other hand it would take about $189 to give up on the AAPL's upside or about a 41% of current value.  However it does tell you the koolaid test is held by GOOG where sentiment about the prospects for new highs are strong, while the AAPL prospects, adding payout premium, is shy of record price of over $700. 

What you would have to be paid to get out of your love position and how incentive protection it would take to get one to buy a stock tells much about the riskvalue of the market.