Thursday, July 9, 2015

Market Fatigue

U.S. indexes may be too tired to take out the May highs.  Then if so, any rallies are just pauses before the next break and the the 2008 decline pattern is still intact. Back then the markets continually provided opportunities to sell as the bulls refused to die.  Eventually the battle lines became a rout however as it all descended into year end lows.

Now pattern recognition has its place in trading and certainly many from HFT to more passive minds have attempted to deliver returns based on mining the approach.  But is usually disappoints.  Big data's snooping approach in the area has been a big dud so far but the tweaking will undoubtedly continue.  

So Greece and China may just represent a part of a story of fatigue.  The former tired of lifting bad paper and the latter exhausted from central planning.