CoverRisk's model of aggregate tracking polls has Hillary experiencing a 75% Fibonacci retracement event. After climbing dramatically after her convention a retracement was inevitable when considering the polar opposite political divisions in the United States. The polling should trend up for the Democrat from here till the debates at a minimum if not for the remaining election cycle. Models still shows Hillary's probability of winning greater than the Republican candidate.
Stock indexes and their underlying components of stocks have played with large value premiums over the last few years. These premiums are presumed to be from accommodations on a global scale by central banks. For example, CoverRisk calculates the trailing value for the S&P 500 is around 1500 or around 30% lower than the close on September 16th, 2016. A Republican presidential victory in November might begin the decline which would test these trailing values. This type of macro move is always unpredictable since all successful macro predictions are based purely on luck. However, if such a decline were to take place one could image the demagoguery blame from which would spew into an even greater unfriendly and declining investment environment. The I, me, mine make up of the traditional Republican base could see a devastating blow to their financial conditions should all the index premiums disappear.
