Thursday, November 20, 2008

Down As The Absurd

The bulls are bailing. The bears who rode the market down and starting buying in October are bailing. Down as the absurd has finally reached a thunderous capitulation where even the elderly would be run down if they were standing in the exits. The play by play business talk personalities have scripted themselves into a drama which is more thrilling than the clever put downs of the bears they played for years. A new category for the Emmy awards could read, Best Prone to Hyperbole in a Daytime Market Series.

This is not about blaming the messenger. It is about how little knowledge these tv personalities have on a daily basis in identifying and disseminating important business analysis and market behavior. What was wrong with Wall Street was hardly ever an issue during the bull run. What was right about judging risk correctly was mundane. Now the shit is hitting the fan and they are helping to fan it. These shows have always perpetuated the great analytics employed by Wall Street which has always come down to two things; buy it and hold it. Important analytics identifies risk and changes direction enough correctly so that when adverse events do occur, there is plenty of cushion.