Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Bernanke/CMEGroup/Debt

Bernanke clearly wants to get going on raising the discount rate to bring about the' beginning of the end' for intervention. Stimulus will remain but the controlling aspects of a hike will be the first time in a while the Fed can say it is leading and not reacting. Rates will rise ever so slowly even in the face of a sluggish economy.

CMEGroup worked out a deal with News Corp for the Dow Jones Index as a move to gain control of an important piece of trading content. Other than reducing license costs, controlling the underlying product is a strategic move to drive and protect the index and its derivatives from any and all competitors. All exchanges fear substitute possibilities, never knowing what may replace any of the current high volume derivatives in the future.

Sovereign debt will be a news game for the year with little chance of any real default but certainly enough bumbling among governments to make trading interesting.