Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Modified Trading Restrictions

Bernanke speaking today will surely be another 'read between the lines' delivery with markets hoping he will not drop negative vibes on a trading environment suspicious of the current economic outlook. There are plenty of 'dead cat bounces' between housing and earnings which could give way to negative price action given any impetus from the Fed.

The 'Volcker Rule' is being somewhat watered down despite the White House's comments to the contrary. With the Illinois contingent in Washington sympathetic to enormous Cmegroup influence, it is unlikely a forceful restriction of banking proprietary trading will ever happen. Trading is trading and the Cmegroup will want to see as much grey area as possible in the final regulations.

Other elements of trading oversight will be the SEC's recommendation for a modified uptick rule which will be applied once a stock has dropped 10% or more. This is a temporary rule but will probably survive the beta since it has wide public support.