Sunday, August 19, 2012

Financial Over Steering

Looks like Greece is odd country out.  German conditions will not allow it to constantly rework the previous workouts which will be required for it to stay in the EU since it has no viable way to accomplish the austerity measures as currently constructed.  Equity and bond markets are already bloated from the new normal trading strategy; i.e. place monster bets on the Fed/EU put protecting all assets.  The EU portion of the put has about as much behind it as a tooth under a pillow; you will get paid, but will be disappointing on how little.

Common thought now is that any crisis can be avoided by following a few simple steps worked out through a recipe concocted by the Fed during the 2008 financial crisis.  The buy math formula for all sorts of bond instruments is the patch solution.  But like all solutions of grand scale but limited to the best last strategy, a mutation of problems will appear and multiply into a panic of some unpredictable degree.   Over steering leads to dramatic spin.