Friday, September 7, 2012

Market Good News Bad News

Conditional unlimited bond buying is the new spin to calm the markets being put forth by ECB President Mario "whatever it takes" Draghi and German President "not so fast" Merkel.  So far the EU participants have been in lip sync to show solidarity as they conjure a bond buying program which may ultimately be so conditional as to be worthless. Besides the directional talk to date, nothing has actually ever been implemented by the ECB. 

The U.S. has a stagnant work force producing marginal GDP and a Fed policy to promote cheap credit to a financial institutional structure which has proven to be incapable of financing commerce but excellent at blowing up any investments their trading operations pick.  The EU has not only a slowing economy but the added stress of solving cross country bailouts without the political ability to craft long term solutions.

Stock markets tend to be in front of good news and behind in bad news. The good news is of coarse the coordinated sensitivity to market direction by world finance leaders.  The bad news is the coordinated sensitivity to market direction by world finance leaders.  

Economic growth and the resulting race of asset price value to catch future value is a product of expanding participation by a broad base economy.  Inflating asset value as a replacement for growth is dangerous in that it is an "all in" strategy based the past performance old growth economic models. 

The markets are "all in" in front of the good news but are behind the bad news.